Geographia Polonica (2007) vol. 80, iss. 2

Models of Impacts of Hydrometeorological Extremes

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Roman Mańczak, Iwona Pińskwar, Maciej Radziejewski

Geographia Polonica (2007) vol. 80, iss. 2, pp. 165-180 | Full text

Abstract

Mathematical modelling of hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts was discussed.An introduction to the notion of modelling is proposed. Annual extremes in temperaturerecords were examined, also on the basis of qualitative indices, when quantitative data are notavailable due to cost restrictions. Trends in long time series of records were studied. Concepts asregards projections of risk of extreme events (such as floods) are also discussed; including synthesisof projection models for a range of climate impacts. The facets of uncertainty are also dealtwith. A conceptualization of the risk in the load-resistance framework is proposed.

Keywords: mathematical modelling; climate impact; hydrometeorological extremes; curve fitting; trend

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland
Roman Mańczak, Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, 60-809 Poznań ul. Bukowska 19, Poland
Iwona Pińskwar, Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland
Maciej Radziejewski, Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland