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Piotr Werner

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Generation of time series of the meteorological values in changing climatic conditions

Małgorzata Gutry-Korycka, Piotr Werner, Bogumił Jakubiak

Geographia Polonica (1994) vol. 62, pp. 23-47 | Full text

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Abstract

The authors discuss the average air temperature and mean precipitation amounts in long-term and short — time variability. This research may be a starting point for combining GCM's models (GFDL and GISS) used to forecast spatial distribution of climatic changes in hydrological models on the territory of Poland.Methods of grid simulation using 90-year and 30-year sequences provide sufficient statistical material for a relatively precise estimation. Authors presented stochastic generation of meteorological data in others time step (daily, monthly and yearly) by Markov chain.

Keywords: scenarios of global climate change; GCM models application (GFDL, GISS); generation of meteorological data (air temperature, precipitation); Markov chains application

Małgorzata Gutry-Korycka, Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Warsaw Krakowskie Przedmieście 30, 00-927 Warszawa, Poland
Bogumił Jakubiak, Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling, Warsaw University Pawińskiego 5a, 02-106 Warsaw, Poland