E. M. Zelikson

Abstract

The paleogeographic analog method has been applied to estimate future changes inthe state of the main components of the environment on the East European Plain at three timeintervals within the 21st century (the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). Two warm epochs of the past, theHolocene optimum (c.5.5 kyr BP) and the Mikulino (Eemian) interglacial optimum (c.125 kyrBP) have been chosen as the paleoanalogs. In the first decades of the 21st century the most probablechanges involve herbaceous plants and tree regrowth. It will only be by the end of the centurythat tree-species penetration of new areas and shifts of zonal boundaries may be expected.The predicted increase in potential evaporation may result in a reduction of wetland areas andslower peat formation. In the north of the Plain, soil-forming processes will presumably respondto warming mainly via accelerated humification. Somewhat enhanced leaching would be typicalfor the subzone of podzolic soils at the end of the century, thus bringing about the initial phase ofsod-podzolic soil formation. The area of chestnut soils will show a tendency to decrease as comparedwith the present day. Some undesirable geomorphological processes and natural hazardsare also considered.

Keywords: warming of climate, changes in vegetation and soils, the paleogeographic analog method, East European Plain

Andrej Alekseevič Veličko, Laboratory of Evolutionary Geography, Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Staromonetny per. 29, Moscow 119017, Russia
O. K. Borisova, Russian Academy of Sciences Staromonetny per. 29 109017 Moscow, Russia
E. M. Zelikson, Russian Academy of Sciences Staromonetny per. 29 109017 Moscow, Russia
T. D. Morozova, Russian Academy of Sciences Staromonetny per. 29 109017 Moscow, Russia