Alfred Dittgen

Abstract

Projections concerning town or district populations need to take dwellingsinto account, unlike national or regional projections where this variable doesn't come intoplay. The first reason for this necessity is obvious: the disappearance or construction ofdwelling units automatically brings automatically about a diminishing or increasing ofpopulation. The second reason is more subtle. If a population is young and increasing,steadiness of the dwelling number leads to out-migration of the new households built inthe place. On the contrary, an older and decreasing population releases dwelling unitsand leads thus to immigrations. This communication shows how it is possible, practically,to integrate this dwelling constraint into the projection model.

Keywords: urban population, population projections, dwellings

Alfred Dittgen, Institut de Démographie de Paris, Université de Paris I — Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris, France