Małgorzata Owczarek

Abstract

The aim of this research was to illustrate the relationship between the occurrence of very strong and extreme cold stress among human beings under the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) across Poland and large-scale near-surface air temperature over the central part of Europe. The statistical downscaling procedure of canonical correlation analysis (CCA) with respect to the period between 1971 and 2000 was applied to extract the main modes of large-scale factors and their local responses. The greatest frequency of occurrence of the discussed cold stress exceeded 35% in January. Most of the variance (39-44%) of the local field in each winter month is explained by the first coupled canonical maps. The main patterns of large-scale field show negative anomalies of monthly mean air temperature in central Europe from -1°C up to -3°C. It can indicate an increase in frequency of the occurrence of analysed cold stress categories throughout the entire area of Poland, by 2% to even over 10%, depending on the region. The best quality model was obtained in eastern Poland, especially in the north-east and south-west of Poland.

Keywords: bioclimate, Poland, cold stress, The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), air temperature, canonical correlation

Małgorzata Owczarek [malgorzata.owczarek@ug.edu.pl], Faculty of Oceanography and Geography University of Gdańsk Bażyńskiego 4, 80-309 Gdańsk: Poland