Andrzej Kędziora

Abstract

Estimates were made of the effects on sensible and latent heat fluxes of a change in real land-use patterns to simulated simplified and mosaic agricultural landscapes. Climate change in Poland due to the enhanced greenhouse effect was assumed after Jager (1988). Land-use changes have stronger impacts on the transport of energy into the atmosphere by convection and évapotranspiration than climate change to 2050 or 2075. These results were assessed by analyses carried out at than landscape level as well as at the scale of the predicted region and the whole of Poland. The effects of global climate change can be mitigated to some extent by manipulation of the land-use pattern.

Keywords: agricultural landscape, land-use, plant cover, heat fluxes, évapotranspiration

Andrzej Kędziora, Agricultural University of Poznań Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland
Lech Ryszkowski, Agricultural University of Poznań Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland

Abstract

To grasp the impact of plant cover structure on heat balance structure the components of heat balance of six ecosystems and two landscapes were calculated by using a mathematical model. The following three types of meteorological conditions during the growing season were taken into consideration:

• Real meteorological conditions for normal, wet and dry years chosen from observations made in the period 1956-1992.
• Assumed model meteorological conditions for a normal year, (averages from long-term values of meteorological data), and for an extremely dry and hot year, and an extremely wet and cold year.
• Predicted meteorological conditions resulting from global changes.

The analysis of various meteorological situations has shown that plant cover has mitigating capacities in relation to the presumed effects of global climate change. Thus, in attempts to predict global changes at local level, the mitigating effects of plant cover must be taken into consideration.

Lech Ryszkowski, Agricultural University of Poznań Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland
Andrzej Kędziora, Agricultural University of Poznań Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland