Józef P. Girjatowicz

Abstract

The paper presents results of time series analysis of observations of Baltic Sea ice. This research may be used to examine the effect of climatic warming on ice conditions in the Baltic Sea. The 273-year series of data on the maximum annual extent of ice cover in the Baltic Sea, reconstructed and published by Jurva, Seina and Palosuo is analyzed. Three parameters of ice conditions on the Polish coast are also utilized: the duration of the ice season (S), the number of days with ice (N) and the maximum thickness of ice (H). The latter data cover the period 1946/1947-1992/1993. Although a general trend towards milder ice seasons can only be seen in isolated series some significant trends are stated. Significant negative deviations of the amount of ice occured in the most recent 5-year period. The quasi-8-year cyclicity of climatic variation in ice conditions is predominant.

Keywords: Baltic Sea, ice cover, climatic variation, climatic trend, climate cyclicity

Józef P. Girjatowicz, Institute of Marine Sciences University of Szczecin ul. Felczaka 3a, 71-412 Szczecin, Poland
Krzysztof Kożuchowski [kkozuchowski1@wp.pl], Department of Environment Dynamics and Bioclimatology, University of Łódź, Lipowa 81, 90-568 Łódź, Poland