Krzysztof Kożuchowski

Krzysztof Kożuchowski [kkozuchowski1@wp.pl], Department of Environment Dynamics and Bioclimatology, University of Łódź, Lipowa 81, 90-568 Łódź, Poland
Joanna Wibig, Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Faculty of Biology and Earth Science, University of Lodz Lipowa 81, 90-568 Łódź, Poland

Abstract

This paper discusses the output of Polish climatologists dealing with climate changes. Some results of the studies carried out by A. Pietkiewicz (1889), R. Merecki (1914), J.P. Rychlinski (1923), W. Gorczyñski (1915), H. Arctowski (1934), J. Lambor (1954), E. Romer (1947), W. Okolowicz (1948) et al. are reported.Climatic forecasts for Poland are presented (with the development of the "greenhouse effect" taken into account). These assume that with doubled CO2 concen-tration air temperature in Poland will rise by 2-5°C (Fig. 1). The results of forecasts concerning precipitation are diverse.Circulation factors take part in forming climate fluctuations. The paper presents a 500 hPa configuration determining thermal and precipitation anomalies in Poland (Fig. 2). The duration of circulation epochs and development stages of continental and oceanic features of Poland's climate were compared (Table 1).The analysis of many-year meteorological observations reveals quasi-cyclic climate fluctuations whose spectrum ranges from 2, 3-4, 6, 8, 11, 30, 80 and 180-year periods. The two latter cycles — "secular" and "bisecular" — determine falling temperature trends for the nearest future. On the basis of the observed temperature fluctuations their relationship with the 11-year solar cycle was found (Fig. 3).Research problems concerning the scenario of climate changes for the nearest decades were listed.

Keywords: climatic change, global warming, climate forecasts, climatic cycles, atmospheric circulation

Krzysztof Kożuchowski [kkozuchowski1@wp.pl], Department of Environment Dynamics and Bioclimatology, University of Łódź, Lipowa 81, 90-568 Łódź, Poland

Abstract

The paper presents results of time series analysis of observations of Baltic Sea ice. This research may be used to examine the effect of climatic warming on ice conditions in the Baltic Sea. The 273-year series of data on the maximum annual extent of ice cover in the Baltic Sea, reconstructed and published by Jurva, Seina and Palosuo is analyzed. Three parameters of ice conditions on the Polish coast are also utilized: the duration of the ice season (S), the number of days with ice (N) and the maximum thickness of ice (H). The latter data cover the period 1946/1947-1992/1993. Although a general trend towards milder ice seasons can only be seen in isolated series some significant trends are stated. Significant negative deviations of the amount of ice occured in the most recent 5-year period. The quasi-8-year cyclicity of climatic variation in ice conditions is predominant.

Keywords: Baltic Sea, ice cover, climatic variation, climatic trend, climate cyclicity

Józef P. Girjatowicz, Institute of Marine Sciences University of Szczecin ul. Felczaka 3a, 71-412 Szczecin, Poland
Krzysztof Kożuchowski [kkozuchowski1@wp.pl], Department of Environment Dynamics and Bioclimatology, University of Łódź, Lipowa 81, 90-568 Łódź, Poland

Małgorzata Gutry-Korycka, Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Warsaw Krakowskie Przedmieście 30, 00-927 Warszawa, Poland
Krzysztof Kożuchowski [kkozuchowski1@wp.pl], Department of Environment Dynamics and Bioclimatology, University of Łódź, Lipowa 81, 90-568 Łódź, Poland